Big Bank Stocks Soared In 2025—But This Earnings Season Could Shake Things Up

Zinger Key PointsAnalysts say Q2 earnings may mark a turning point for the bank stock rally.Structural tailwinds remain, but fresh catalysts are needed to sustain momentum into the second half.Get daily-updated rankings across momentum, growth, value, trends, and quality to spot the strongest stocks in any market.Wall Street's biggest banks have rallied hard in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500 with an average 18% year-to-date gain, but as second-quarter earnings roll in starting July 15, analysts warn the easy gain mayalready be priced in.In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala said this earnings season may represent a “breather” for the group.While structural tailwinds remain strong, especially for names likeCitigroup Inc.CandWells Fargo & Co.WFC, the absence of fresh catalysts in the second half could slow the pace of gains unless earnings surprises deliver.BankYTD return as of July 9, 2025The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS22.94%Citigroup Inc.22.4%Morgan StanleyMS13.84Wells Fargo & Company17.44JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM19.86Bank of America CorporationBAC7.83JPMorgan Sets The Bar—But It's Already HighAccording to Poonawala,JPMorgan is expected to post earnings per share of $4.48 for the second quarter, slightly above consensus.Net interest income is expected at $11.96 billion, up 3.4% quarter over quarter, with FY25 guidance revised higher to $95.2 billion.CFOJeremy Barnumsaid 2025 net interest income might "end up a little better, maybe by $1 billion," reflecting fewer expected Fed cuts. But with JPMorgan stock already up sharply by 19% year to date, the market is wondering if the near-term upside is limited.Citi And Wells Fargo: Underdogs With Upside?Citigroupcould be one of the most interesting stories this quarter. While its second-quarter EPS estimate was trimmed to $1.62 by Bank of America, focus will be on whether its multi-year restructuring plan is finally bearing fruit.Citigroup's trading revenues, adjusted for a $400 million gain from the sale of Visa shares, are expected to grow more than 17% year over year. The bank reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $83.1 billion to $84.1 billion.Wells Fargo & Co.is entering its first full quarter without the Fed-imposed asset cap. Second-quarter EPS is estimated at $1.42, with full-year net interest income projected at $48.5 billion, representing 1.1% year-over-year growth.Capital Markets Slowdown A Drag On Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs?Morgan StanleyandGoldman Sachsface tougher comps. Morgan Stanley's second-quarter EPS was cut to $1.96 due to higher provisions and lower net interest income. Still, the bank is seen as stable, supported by strong equity trading and its high-performing wealth management arm, which contributes around 40% of earnings.Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, is forecast to post an EPS of $9.74, slightly above the consensus.Strength in trading (+7% YoY) and improving M&A activity are offsetting weaker asset management results. The bank has a $40 billion buyback program and increased dividends to $4.00 per share, reflecting confidence in future performance.BNY Mellon and Northern Trust: M&A Buzz BuildsM&A chatter is swirling aroundThe Bank of New York Mellon Corp.BKandNorthern Trust Corp.NTRS. BNY's Q2 EPS was raised to $1.80, as deposit strength lifts full-year NII growth to 6.8% year over year.Northern Trust is expected to deliver $2.08 in second-quarter EPS, driven by a strong wealth management business (accounting for 50% of profits) and deposit inflows.Loading...Loading...Read Next:Wall Street Is On Fire—So Why Is This Wall Of Cash Moving Abroad?Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.BACBank of America Corp$46.82-0.70%Stock Score Locked: Want to See it?Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock – anytime.Reveal Full ScoreEdge RankingsMomentum58.88Growth72.89Quality65.27ValueN/APrice TrendShortMediumLongOverviewBKBank of New York Mellon Corp$92.900.23%CCitigroup Inc$85.760.23%GSThe Goldman Sachs Group Inc$697.640.05%JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co$282.860.03%MSMorgan Stanley$141.470.24%NTRSNorthern Trust Corp$127.180.97%WFCWells Fargo & Co$81.750.19%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs© 2025 Benzinga.com. . .EarningsAnalyst RatingsOptionsDividendsIPOsDate▲▼ticker▲▼name▲▼Actual EPS▲▼EPS Surprise▲▼Actual Rev▲▼Rev Surprise▲▼Click to see moreEarningsupdatesEarnings CalendarNever Miss Important CatalystsSort by estimates, projected upside, profit surprises, and more to easily find new stocks to invest in or check up on your portfolio.Click to JoinPosted In:Analyst ColorEarningsEquitiesLarge CapTop StoriesAnalyst RatingsbanksStories That MatterWall Street