What Trump really means when he says ‘our deal with China is done’

A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for freehere. Welcome back (if you ever left) to the President Trump Show. This week, America’s reality-TV-star-in-chief nurseda messy public feudwith the world’s richest man, deployedhundreds of Marinesand the National Guard to downtown LA, touted a trade“deal” with China, and threatened “heavy force” against anyone who dares to pooh-poohthis weekend’s military parade. (Eat your heart out, “Real Housewives” producers.) The Trump Show, like all manufactured drama, is formulaic and at times hard to watch. But unlike most reality TV, the stakes here are global and existential. We truly cannot look away. ICYMI: Trump on Tuesday declared on his social media platform that “our deal with China is done.” (Note: It is not adealdeal, and it still needs to be approved by leaders from both sides. But much like the US trade handshake with the UK, it is a framework to shape future trade talks thatcouldlead to a lasting agreement.) The White House didn’t release any details about what’s actually in the framework, but negotiators said that both countries had agreed to ease up on key sticking points. In particular, China will let American businesses continue to tap its monopolistic supply ofrare-earth minerals, used in everything from industrial catalysts to magnets, and the US will continue allowing Chinese students to enroll at American universities. This is ultimately good news for businesses and investors, assuming the truce holds. The last trade truce with China, from a month ago in Geneva, fell apart after just a couple of weeks when Trump lashed out at Beijing and accused officials of not holding up their end of the bargain. But “good” news is a matter of perspective. This week’s arrangement, in principle, just reverts the two trading partners to where they were a month ago, when the Geneva detente began, as my colleagueDavid Goldman notes. Tariffs on Chinese goods — which are taxes paid by US importers — remain historically high. Under the current plan, the US would still tax most Chinese imports at a rate of 30%. (That rate has changed at least three times since early April, when Trump’s trade war kicked off in earnest.) The US isn’t opening its doors to China’s autos, nor will it sell advanced AI chips to China anytime soon. This chaotic trade narrative is all part of the Trumpian kayfabe, where it’s hard to tell what’s real and what isn’t. He takes a wrecking ball to the status quo and then swoops in with a “deal” that he claims will restore order. Set the house on fire. Roll up in a firetruck. Rinse, repeat. That same playbook is partly why a relatively small, local Los Angeles protest against Trump’s deportation efforts has morphed into a national story. Trump, seeing an opportunity to flex in the heart of a Democratic stronghold, overrode California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s objections to send in thousands of members of theNational Guard on Saturday. Rather than quell the protests, the move has inflamed tensions and inspired more than a dozen similar demonstrations in cities across the US. The result: Images of burning cars, tear gas and police in riot gear are splashed across the news, split-screened with —who else?— the commander-in-chief. “Trump is conjuring a narrative of invasion and insurrection,” my colleagueStephen Collinson writes. “He’s exaggerating disorder in the relatively contained unrest, looting and protests in Los Angeles. And he’s implying that, to keep the country safe, he’s ready to deploy soldiers across the country.”