UBS sees Trump doing a TACO on 30% EU tariffs, recommend buy gold as a policy risk hedge
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UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump:Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation.Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising.Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended.Acknowledges risk of U.S.-EU tensions worsening, which would hurt both economies.On Mexico: Trump notes progress on border and trade, but wants more action; UBS sees no disruptive retaliation from Mexico.UBS' asset views:Recommends gradually increasing equity exposure, using market volatility to enter.Favors U.S. tech, healthcare, and financials; Asian tech (Taiwan, India, China); quality/thematic European plays.Suggests gold as a hedge against ongoing policy risk.---Earlier on gold:Goldman Sachs forecasts gold reaching US$4,000 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
📄 Summary
UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump:Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation.Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising.Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended.Acknowledges risk of U.S.-EU tensions worsening, which would hurt both economies.On Mexico: Trump notes progress on border and trade, but wants more action; UBS sees no disruptive retaliation from Mexico.UBS' asset views:Recommends gradually increasing equity exposure, using market volatility to enter.Favors U.S. tech, healthcare, and financials; Asian tech (Taiwan, India, China); quality/thematic European plays.Suggests gold as a hedge against ongoing policy risk.---Earlier on gold:Goldman Sachs forecasts gold reaching US$4,000 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.